Jonathan Beale
Defence correspondent

Image source, Reuters

A senior Ukrainian politician has said the cost of President Trump’s decision to halt the supply of weapons and some intelligence sharing with Ukraine will be measured “in the life of our soldiers”.

Yehor Cherniev, the Deputy Chairman of Ukraine’s Defence and Intelligence Committee told the BBC the US pause “will mean that we’ll lose more and more soldiers”.

However, he did not think the impact will be felt immediately on the frontline. That will depend on the intensity of the fighting. Currently he believes Ukraine has sufficient stocks to fight on for another six months.

More pressing, he says, is the supply of missiles for US made air defence systems like Patriot batteries – one of the few systems capable of shooting down Russian ballistic missiles.

As for long range US supplied ATACMS missiles, used to hit high value targets behind enemy lines, Mr Cherniev thinks most, if not all, have already been used.

Ukraine is now less reliant on US supplied weaponry and ammunition than it was at the start of Russia’s full scale invasion. Mr Cherniev said that Ukraine’s own arms production had increased more than 20 times. The focus has been on domestically produced drones.

Ukraine has still been conducting its own long range drone strikes inside Russia, since the US decision. That suggests it still has access to some intelligence. How and where it’s getting that information from is unclear.

Ivan Stupak, a former Ukrainian Security Service Officer believed Ukraine “did not have a clue of what is going on” – in terms of intelligence sharing. He said it was a sign of the break down in relations between Kiev and Washington – with “no direct communication”.

Jonathan Beale
Defence correspondent

Ukraine is still clearly getting some intelligence. Enough to sound the air raid warnings in Kyiv before another Russian attack. But defending Ukraine’s towns and cities will become more difficult without American support.

Russia appears to be making the most of the Trump administration’s pause in weapons deliveries – launching scores of drones and missiles.

Ukrainian soldiers defending the skies around the capital are engaging targets most nights.

Oleksandr, a soldier with Ukraine’s Central Air Defence Command, says he was “upset” by President Trump’s decision to halt the supply of weapons and intelligence to Ukraine. “We were counting on US support, he says. But if it stops “we’ll carry on fighting with what we’ve got”.

His small unit relies on older Soviet era shoulder launched missiles and a Ukrainian made heavy machine gun. They’re effective against slower moving Russian drones. Over the past weekend they’ve successfully destroyed two.

Hidden away are the more sophisticated western supplied air defence systems needed to bring down faster moving targets. The US made Patriot is one of the few systems capable of intercepting Russian ballistic missiles and essential to protecting the capital and key military sites. President Zelensky has long been pleading for more batteries. But Ukraine’s immediate worry is running out of Patriot interceptor missiles.

Yurislav, the mobile battery commander, says the US administration’s decision will hurt Ukraine. “We haven’t felt it yet” he says “but I think we will feel it. Sooner or later we’ll run out of missiles”.

There is still hope that President Trump will reverse his decision. But regardless of what he decides Ukraine knows that it can no longer always count on continued US support.

Image source, Getty Images

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has landed in Saudi Arabia ahead of peace talks with Ukrainian officials on Tuesday.

Speaking to reporters just before touching down in Jeddah, Rubio was quizzed on whether Ukraine could expect to start receiving military aid from the US again.

"I think the notion of the pause in aid, broadly, is something I hope we can resolve. Obviously what happens tomorrow will be key to that," he says.

As for the minerals deal, Rubio says this is something that Trump "wants to see done", but he adds, "it doesn't necessarily have to happen tomorrow".

He adds that the US delegation will be in "listening mode" and hope to get a "general sense" of what concessions Ukraine is willing to make.

"You're not going to get a ceasefire and an end of this war unless both sides make concessions," he explains, adding that the US will then find out what the Russian position is.

"That'll give us a pretty good assessment of how far apart we are," he suggests.

Image source, PA Media

We're now hearing from Downing Street, after UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer spoke with US President Trump ahead of Tuesday's talks in Saudi Arabia between the US and Ukraine.

A spokeswoman from Downing Street says Starmer told Trump that Ukraine officials "remain committed to a lasting peace".

She adds that during the conversation, Starmer said "he hoped there would be a positive outcome to the talks that would enable US aid and intelligence sharing to be restarted".

“The two leaders also spoke about the economic deal they had discussed at the White House and the Prime Minister welcomed the detailed conversations that had already happened to move this forward.

"Both leaders agreed to stay in touch," she adds.

As a reminder, Starmer is set to host a second meeting, expected to be a virtual gathering on Saturday, for leaders of countries that may contribute to a "coalition of the willing" for Ukraine.

As we reported a little earlier, Steve Witkoff says the US never shut off intelligence for "anything defensive that the Ukrainians needed".

Donald Trump told reporters last night that the US has "just about" lifted its pause on sending military intelligence to Ukraine.

The pause, which came into effect on 5 March, means Ukraine would not be able to make such effective use of long-range Western weaponry or have access to valuable advance information on incoming threats.

• For more on the US pause on intelligence: How pausing US intelligence impacts Ukraine's military operation

We're seeing images now of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky with Saudi officials, after he recently landed in Saudi Arabia.

Zelensky is meeting with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, but he will not be attending talks on Tuesday between US and Ukrainian officials.

Image source, Office of the President of Ukraine

Image source, Office of the President of Ukraine

Image source, Office of the President of Ukraine

Image source, Getty Images

Donald Trump's envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, says the US never shut off intelligence for "anything defensive that the Ukrainians needed".

Witkoff is part of the US delegation due to meet Ukrainian officials in Jeddah tomorrow.

"There's been a lot of discussion between our teams and the Ukrainians and the Europeans who are relevant to these discussions as well," Witkoff says in an interview with Fox News.

"I would like to describe it as progress."

Witkoff adds that he hopes a deal on critical minerals will be signed off during this week's meetings.

President Volodymyr Zelensky has arrived in Jeddah ahead of talks with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman today, AFP and Reuters news agencies report, both citing a Ukrainian official.

As a reminder, he will not attend talks between the Ukrainian and US delegations on Tuesday.

Image source, Getty Images

Image source, Reuters

Ukraine is expected to push for a truce with Russia in the sea and the sky during the upcoming peace talks in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, an official says.

Ukrainian and US officials will discuss how to bring peace, though neither US President Donald Trump nor his Ukrainian counterpart will be in attendance - Russia will also be absent.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov says Russia is at "an initial stage of restoring bilateral relations" with the US. He adds that it is "important to understand if Ukrainian authorities want peace or not".

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky says “Ukraine has been striving for peace since the first second of the war". He is due to meet the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Jeddah today.

Meanwhile, the war on the ground continues as Russian forces are reportedly trying to encircle thousands of Ukrainian soldiers in Russia's Kursk region, where they recaptured three settlements on Sunday.

As the build-up to Tuesday's peace talks continues, we'll bring you the latest updates. Stay with us.

Image source, EPA

As US and Ukrainian officials are preparing for peace talks in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, civilians continue to find their lives upended by the ongoing war.

Fierce fighting continues in Kursk, where Ukraine's military reports more than 100 clashes with Russian forces on Saturday.

While people in Dobropillya in Donetsk, eastern Ukraine, are sifting through the rubble of their former homes, after Russian airstrikes killed at least 11 people and left 30 injured.

Image source, EPA

Image source, Reuters

US President Donald Trump says he believes "a lot of progress" will be made during talks between the US and Ukraine in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday.

Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One on Sunday, Trump added that he's expecting to see "pretty good results" in the "not so distant future".

Trump also said that "eventually, we have to have peace".

As a reminder, Trump will not be in attendance at the talks in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday. Instead, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Adviser Mike Waltz will be at the table.

Damian Grammaticas
Political correspondent

Image source, Getty Images

Prime Minister Keir Starmer will this week host a second meeting, expected to be on Saturday, for leaders of countries that may contribute to a "coalition of the willing" for Ukraine, Downing Street has said.

The meeting, led by Starmer, will be a "virtual" one held online. It follows the recent summit he chaired at Lancaster House.

Around 20 countries are believed to have expressed interest in possibly joining the coalition, though it's understood not all would be willing to send troops to Ukraine.

The Prime Minister's official spokesperson told reporters that, beyond European states, "Commonwealth allies" such as Australia were part of the talks, adding "clearly all of those involved discussions are interested in exploring exactly what they're able to contribute, but, still, discussions are ongoing".

The spokesperson said the UK Defence Secretary John Healey will also be travelling to Paris this week.

On Tuesday, Healey will, alongside his French counterpart, host a 'military meeting' of possible members of the"'coalition of the willing".

On Wednesday, Healey will take part in a meeting of defence ministers from E5 countries, the UK, France, Germany, Italy and Poland.

Vitaliy Shevchenko
Russia editor, BBC Monitoring

Image source, Getty Images

Ukraine is proposing a ceasefire in the sky and at sea, but not on the ground, presidential adviser Serhiy Leshchenko has said.

“You want a ceasefire? We’re ready, but not on the ground, where Putin would be able to cease fire for a few months and treat his wounded, recruit infantry from North Korea and resume this war,” Leshchenko tells Ukrainian TV.

“He [Trump] is asking: have you got a ceasefire plan? We say we do. We suggest ceasing fire in the sky – we’re talking about drones, missiles and ballistic missiles.

"We are also proposing to cease fire at sea. We undertake the pledge not to attack. Which is paradoxical, by the way, because we hold the initiative in the Black Sea. We are also suggesting that the energy sector is not attacked,” he says.

Image source, Getty Images

Ukrainian opposition MP Oleksiy Goncharenko has called for a ceasefire "on the ground" as well as in the sea and sky, as suggested by Volodymyr Zelensky.

As our colleague Vitaliy Shevchenko reports, the Ukrainian president suggests a ceasefire in the sea and sky could initially be agreed, before fighting comes to a complete halt.

Zelensky is also pushing for US security guarantees as part of a deal to bring about the end of the war, but Goncharenko tells the BBC Ukraine should be "reasonable" about this.

Kyiv to propose ceasefire in sea and sky, official says, as truce talks nearpublished at 12:32 Greenwich Mean Time

12:32 GMT

Vitaliy Shevchenko
Russia editor, BBC Monitoring

As US-Ukraine talks in Saudi Arabia draw near, it remains unclear what Washington is prepared to offer Ukraine in exchange for access to the country’s mineral wealth demanded by Donald Trump.

But we have a better idea of what Ukraine wants. On Friday, President Volodymir Zelensky said, external initial steps towards peace should include “quiet” in the sky (i.e. no more Russian missiles, bombs and drones) and at sea to guarantee unhindered shipping.

Today, the AFP news agency quoted a Ukrainian official speaking on condition of anonymity as also saying that Kyiv would propose a ceasefire in the sky and at sea in Saudi talks because such a ceasefire is “easy to install and to monitor”.

Earlier, on 24 February, President Zelensky said, external a comprehensive exchange of all prisoners of war held by Russia and Ukraine should be the first step towards peace.

As for Russia’s stance, foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova rejected proposals for a truce, saying the war would only resume “with renewed force” afterwards.

There is still no sign that Russia’s appetites have in any way diminished. Officials in Moscow still say the “special military operation” will go on to capture more Ukrainian territory, and Russia’s missiles and drones continue attacking towns and cities across Ukraine.

Image source, EPA

As we've reported, Ukrainian military drones are reported to have hit a Russian oil refinery. This follows an intense wave of Russian strikes have killed at least 25 people since Friday, according to various Ukrainian officials on Saturday.

The deadliest strikes occurred late on Friday in Dobropillya, Donetsk. Local officials say a Russian attack killed at least 11 people and wounded 40, including six children.

Following the strikes, Polish PM Donald Tusk said: "This is what happens when someone appeases barbarians."

Other attacks in the region killed nine people and wounded 13 on Friday and Saturday, local officials said.

Russian drones also struck a company in Kharkiv, killing three people, and hit civilian and energy infrastructure in Odesa, according to the regions' heads.

BBC Monitoring

Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR) attack drones have hit the Novokuybyshevsk oil refinery in Russia's Samara Region, according to a Ukrainian media outlet.

News website Ukrayinska Pravda reports that Samara residents reported loud explosions, adding that the nets built to protect the plant from drone attacks were not fully installed.

Andriy Kovalenko, from Ukraine's National Security and Defence Council (NSDC), wrote on Telegram that the plant's capacity totalled 8.8m tonnes of oil per year, "making it one of the 10 largest refineries in the Russian Federation".

The refinery produces petroleum products - including gasoline, diesel fuel and fuel oil - as well as transport and military equipment, Kovalenko adds.

Russian forces are reportedly trying to encircle thousands of Ukrainian soldiers in Russia's Kursk region, where they recaptured three settlements on Sunday.

Ukraine seized Kursk seven months ago, hoping to use it as leverage in peace talks.

It follows reports by Russian bloggers that Russian special forces had crept for miles through a gas pipeline near the town of Sudzha in an attempt to surprise Ukrainian forces.

A further thrust there, combined with recent advances in Ukraine's Sumy region in north-east Ukraine, could force Ukrainian troops to retreat or surrender in western Russia.

Ukraine says there have been more than a hundred and fifty clashes with Russian forces in the past day, with the heaviest fighting around the industrial city Pokrovsk, eastern Ukraine.

Big gap between ceasefire and a peace dealpublished at 11:18 Greenwich Mean Time

11:18 GMT

Frank Gardner
Security correspondent

Image source, EPA

There is much riding this week on the prospect of a ‘framework’ ceasefire deal being thrashed out in the Saudi port city of Jeddah between senior US and Ukrainian negotiators.

This is the relatively easy part. Ukraine has said it is ready for a ceasefire in the air and at sea, but it would expect Russia to do the same.

President Zelensky has had to backtrack on his recent comment that ending the war was a long way off after this infuriated President Trump. Instead, he is making all the right noises about wanting peace as Ukraine desperately needs Washington to restore its military and intelligence aid, seen as crucial to staving off further Russian advances.

But then comes the tricky part.

Russia and Ukraine are still very far apart on what they would accept in a final peace deal.

Moscow, as far as we know, has not significantly moderated its original demands since the start of the full-scale war. It expects Ukraine to permanently give up all of its four southern and eastern oblasts (provinces) that Russia has illegally annexed, including cities still in Ukrainian hands.

It expects a permanent veto on Ukraine ever joining Nato or the EU and it wants a pliant, pro-Moscow government in Kyiv. In other words: capitulation.

Image source, Reuters

We can bring you some more now from Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov who says it is "important to understand if Ukrainian authorities want peace or not".

Speaking at a briefing, which we have more on in our previous post, he also denies reports of US-Russian talks in Saudi Arabia this week.

As a reminder, US and Ukrainian officials are meeting in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday to discuss bringing an end to the Ukraine war.

Peskov says telephone communications between Trump and Putin are "not so often", adding that the pair have only had one call since Trump took office for his second term as US president on 20 January.